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# Gold prices were flat on Wednesday at $2,319.14 per ounce as the US dollar and Treasury yields remained firm
# Traders are awaiting key US economic data: first-quarter GDP estimates on Thursday and the PCE price index report on Friday, which could clarify the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans.
# US consumer confidence decreased in June due to economic concerns, but households remained optimistic about the labor market and expected inflation to moderate over the next year.
PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
GOLD prices were flat on Wednesday (Jun 26) as the US dollar and Treasury yields held firm ahead of a key inflation reading due later this week, which could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Spot gold was unchanged at US$2,319.14 per ounce, as at 0128 GMT. US gold futures were flat at US$2,331.00. The US dollar rose 0.1 per cent against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders, while benchmark 10-year yields also edged higher. The euro, once considered a competitor to the US dollar’s international role, was weakening as an alternative currency, with those looking to reduce their risk exposure turning to gold instead, a report showed.
This week, traders are looking forward to the US first-quarter gross domestic product estimates due on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures price index report on Friday to get more cues on the timing and scale of possible rate cuts this year. US consumer confidence eased in June amid worries about the economic outlook, but households remained upbeat about the labour market and expected inflation to moderate over the next year.
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# Chinese consumers have flocked to gold as their confidence in traditional investments like real estate or stocks has faltered.
# Gold consumption in China rose 6 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the China Gold Association. It came on the heels of a 9 per cent increase last year.
AS GOLD surged this year to its highest price ever, Xena Lin joined the frenzy by making monthly purchases of gold “beans”, pebble-like morsels of the precious metal.
For Lin, a 25-year-old administrative worker in southern China, the US$80 beans – small enough to rest on a fingertip and weighing about one-thirtieth of an ounce – were an affordable way to buy into the gold excitement without splurging for jewellery, gold bars or coins. She had dabbled with investing in stocks in the past, but she said buying gold, especially in this fun way, inspired her to continue investing.
“I’m still working hard to save more,” Lin said.
Often considered a safe investment during times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, gold has soared in price in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war in the Gaza Strip. But gold’s climb to highs above US$2,400 per ounce has proved more resilient, and lasted longer, because of China.
Chinese consumers have flocked to gold as their confidence in traditional investments like real estate or stocks has faltered. At the same time, the country’s central bank has steadily added to its gold reserves, while whittling away at its holdings of US debt. And throwing fuel on the fire are Chinese speculators betting that there is still room for appreciation.
China already held considerable sway in gold markets. But the country’s influence has become more pronounced during this latest bull run – a nearly 50 per cent increase in the global price since late 2022. It continued to scale new heights despite factors that traditionally make gold a comparatively less appealing investment: higher interest rates and a strong US dollar.
Last month, gold prices vaulted higher even after the Federal Reserve signalled that it would keep higher interest rates for longer. And it has continued to appreciate even as the US dollar has risen against almost every major currency in the world this year.
Prices have pulled back to around US$2,300 per ounce, but there is a growing sentiment that the gold market is governed no longer by economic factors but by the whims of Chinese buyers and investors.
Gold investing became more alluring as traditional investments turned lacklustre.
China’s real estate sector, the destination for most families’ savings, remains in crisis. Investor confidence in the country’s stock markets has not fully returned. A string of big investment funds aimed at the wealthy toppled after failed bets on real estate.
With few better alternatives, money flowed into Chinese funds that traded in gold, and many young people took to collecting beans in tiny quantities.
Online merchants are aggressively hawking gold beans. On Alibaba’s Taobao, one of China’s biggest e-commerce platforms, a merchant sold gold beans on a livestream – a blend of the Home Shopping Network and Amazon. She said buying beans was “like shopping, but an investment”.
The tiny beans came in five shapes, including one that resembled a peanut and another like a persimmon. Paying US$87 per bean, a person could buy into the gold boom for the price of a hot pot meal, she said.
Kelly Zhong, a teacher in Beijing, started buying gold in 2020 at the outset of the pandemic. She has amassed more than 2 pounds (0.9 kg) of gold bars, but she has also invested in the metal through exchange-traded funds. She said she was inspired by an old saying: “Jade in prosperous times, gold in troubled times.”
As she felt the world become more chaotic, Zhong added to her stockpile, betting that gold prices would only climb. She has stopped buying, but she is not ready to sell. She sees no reason to. The Chinese economy is still struggling, and neither real estate nor stocks seem like a sound investment.
Another major buyer of gold in China is the country’s central bank.
In March, the People’s Bank of China added to its gold reserves for a 17th straight month. Last year, the bank bought more gold than any other central bank in the world, adding more to its reserves than it had in nearly 50 years.
Beijing is buying up gold to diversify its reserve funds and reduce its dependence on the US dollar, long considered the most important currency to hold in reserve. China has been reducing its US Treasury holdings for more than a decade. As at March, China had about US$775 billion worth of US debt, down from about US$1.1 trillion in 2021.
When China increased its gold holdings in the past, it bought domestically using yuan, said Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC International in Beijing. But this time, he said, the bank is using foreign currencies to buy gold – effectively reducing its exposure to the US dollar and other currencies.
Many central banks, including China, started acquiring gold after the US Treasury Department took the rare step of freezing Russia’s US dollar holdings under sanctions imposed on Moscow. Other American allies imposed similar restrictions for their currencies.
Guan said the sanctions had shaken the “foundation of trust for the current international monetary system” and forced central banks to protect their reserves with more diverse holdings. “We can see this wave of gold’s rise may be different from the past,” he said.
Although Beijing has been buying up gold, the metal accounts for only about 4.6 per cent of China’s foreign exchange reserves. In percentage terms, India holds nearly twice as much of its reserves in gold.
The combination of aggressive retail buying from Chinese consumers and central bank purchases has drawn the interest of speculators on markets in Shanghai who are betting that this trend will continue. Average trading volume for gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange more than doubled in April from a year earlier.
“They are swimming with the tide,” said Norman from MetalsDaily. “China is now dominating the gold market.”
For Lin, buying gold beans is satisfying, she said, because it feels like frivolous shopping but she’s actually investing her money in something she can touch. She said she would continue to buy more beans.
“The price of gold always goes up and down,” she said. “But the increase is within the range that I can bear, so I think it’s OK.”
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April 2 (Reuters) – Gold scaled yet another record peak on Tuesday as traders snapped up the safe haven asset amid growing Middle East tensions, largely ignoring a stronger dollar and tempered bets for U.S. rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $2,268.44 per ounce by 2:07 p.m. EDT (1807 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of $2,276.89. U.S. gold futures settled 1.1% higher at $2,281.8.
“We’re seeing some safe-haven demand flowing into gold, which relates to the Israeli strikes on Iran’s embassy in Syria,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.
The latest leg up in gold prices is probably also associated with short covering from family offices and proprietary trading shops, Ghali added.
Iran vowed to take revenge on Israel for an airstrike on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.
Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said an underlying bid from retail and central banks was being joined by momentum-following speculators who have extended their already elevated longs following gold’s break above $2,200.
The mix of bullish tailwinds has driven bullion nearly 10% higher so far this year.
“What makes the gold rally so unusual is that it is occurring despite significant traditional headwinds with the U.S. dollar rising, Treasury yields rising, the likelihood of higher for longer U.S. rates increasing,” said independent analyst Ross Norman.
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